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Daily Forex Analysis – November 16, 2009

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 22:05:33 +0100

GBPUSD Analysis.

GBPUSD is forming a short term cycle bottom at 1.6515 level on 4-hour chart. Now the rise from 1.6515 is possibly be resumption of uptrend from 1.5708, a break above 1.6840 key resistance will confirm the cycle bottom and signal another rally towards 1.7042 (Aug 5 high). Support level is at 1.6515, below this level will suggesting that the uptrend from 1.5708 has completed at 1.6841 level already, then the following downtrend could take price back to 1.6300-1.6350 area.

AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD dropped from 0.9368 and reached 0.9210 level only. Now the rise from 0.9210 could possibly be resumption of uptrend from 0.8916. Further rally is in favor and next target would be at 0.9500 zone. Support is at 0.9210, only fall below this level will signal another decline towards 0.9000 area.

EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD might be forming a short term cycle bottom at 1.4821 level on 4-hour chart, further rise to test 1.5048 key resistance is expected later today, a break above this level will confirm the cycle bottom and signal resumption of longer term uptrend from 1.3748 (June 16 low). However, below 1.4821 level will suggest lengthier range trading between 1.4626 and 1.5062 is underway, and delay the resumption of uptrend.

USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD stays in a falling price channel and remains in downtrend from 1.0852. A break below 1.0416 will confirm that the fall from 1.0852 is resumption of long term downtrend, then next target could be seen to 1.0300 zone. However, a clear break above the channel resistance will indicate that the fall has completed at 1.0416 level already.

USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY dropped sharply from 90.60 last week. Deeper decline is still possible to re-test 89.29 support, below this level will signal another fall towards 88.83. However, rebound would more likely be seen before breaking below 88.01 critical support. Resistance is now at the falling trend line from 91.26 to 90.60, above the trend line resistance will indicate that the fall from 92.32 has completed.

USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF pulled back from 1.0193 last week, suggesting that a short term cycle top is being formed on 4-hour chart. Deeper decline to test 1.0035 is expected later today, and a breakdown below this level will indicate that the downtrend from 1.1021 (June 24 high) has resumed, then another fall could take price to 0.9900 area.

Daily Forex Analysis – November 13, 2009

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 11:52:19 +0100

AUDUSD Analysis.

After breaking above 0.9326 previous high resistance, AUDUSD dropped below 0.9254 key support, suggesting that a short term cycle top has been formed at 0.9368 level on 4-hour chart and the rise from 0.8916 has completed. Pullback towards 0.9000 zone would more likely be seen in next several days. Resistance level is now located at 0.9368, only rise above this level will indicate that uptrend from 0.8916 has resumed, then next target would be at 0.9500 area.

GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD’s fall from 1.6841 extended to as low as 1.6515. As long as 1.6660 key resistance holds, deeper decline is still possible, and next target would be at 1.6400 zone. However, the fall from 1.6841 is more likely consolidation of uptrend from 1.5708, another rise towards 1.7042 (Aug 5 high) could be seen after consolidation. Resistance is at 1.6660, above this level could signal resumption of uptrend.

EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD broke below 1.4938 key support, suggesting that a short term cycle top has been formed at 1.5048 level on 4-hour chart and the rise from 1.4626 has completed. Further decline is now in favor and next target would be at 1.4750 zone. Resistance is now located at 1.4885 followed by 1.4910.

USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD might be forming a short term cycle bottom at 1.0416 level on 4-hour chart. Further rise towards the upper border of the falling price channel is possible later today. As long as the channel resistance holds, we’d expect downtrend to resume, and another fall towards 1.0300 is still possible, however, a clear break above the channel resistance will indicate that the downtrend from 1.0852 has completed at 1.0416 level already, then another rise towards 1.1000 could be seen to follow.

USDJPY Analysis.
After breaking below 89.44 support, USDJPY rebounded from 89.29, suggesting range trading between 89.29 and 91.26 is underway. Further rise towards 91.26 is expected later today, a break above this level will indicate that a short term cycle bottom has been formed at 89.29 level on 4-hour chart and the fall from 92.32 has completed.

USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF failed to break below 1.0032 and rebounded sharply to as high as 1.0193, suggesting that a short term cycle bottom has been formed at 1.0035 level on 4-hour chart, and the fall from 1.0338 has completed. Further rise to 1.0250 zone is possible later today. Support is now at 1.0145 followed by 1.0130.

Daily Forex Analysis – November 12, 2009

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 11:02:31 +0100

GBPUSD Analysis.
As expected, GBPUSD formed a short term cycle top at 1.6841 level on 4-hour chart. Deeper decline is still possible later today and next target would be at 1.6400 zone. However, the fall from 1.6841 is more likely consolidation of uptrend from 1.5708, another rise towards 1.7042 (Aug 5 high) could be seen after consolidation. Resistance is now at 1.6700, above this level could signal resumption of uptrend.

EURUSD Analysis.
Being contained by 1.5062 previous high resistance, EURUSD consolidates in a narrow range between 1.4938 and 1.5048. As long as 1.4938 support holds, uptrend from 1.4626 will continue and further rise to 1.5200 is possible. However, below 1.4938 will indicate that a short term cycle top has been formed at 1.5048 level on 4-hour chart, then lengthier consolidation could take price to 1.4850-1.4900 area.

USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD’s downtrend from 1.0852 extended to as low as 1.0422 level. Now the fall is more likely resumption of long term downtrend, deeper decline is still in favor and next target would be at 1.0300 area. Resistance is now at 1.0485, as long as this level holds, downtrend will continue.

USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY broke below 89.44 support. Deeper decline is still possible later today and target would be at 89.00 zone. Key resistance is now at 90.26, a break above this level will indicate that a short term cycle bottom has been formed, and the following rebound could take price back to 91.00 area.

USDCHF Analysis.
Being contained by 1.0032 support, USDCHF consolidates in a narrow range between 1.0032 and 1.0109. As long as 1.0109 resistance holds, downtrend from 1.0338 will continue and next target would be at 0.9900 zone, however, a break above 1.0109 level will indicate lengthier consolidation is underway, then rebound to 1.0100 could be seen.

AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD broke above 0.9326 previous high, suggesting that the longer term uptrend from 0.7703 (July 13 low) has resumed. Further rise is now in favor and next target would be at 0.9500 area. Support level is now at 0.9254, only fall below this level would signal consolidation of uptrend.

Daily Forex Analysis – November 11, 2009

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 22:25:30 +0100

EURUSD Analysis.

Being contained by 1.5062 previous high resistance, EURUSD pulled back from 1.5019, suggesting that a minor consolidation of uptrend from 1.4626 is on the way. Another fall towards the lower border of the rising price channel is possible later today. However, as long as the channel support holds, we’d expect uptrend to resume and further rise towards 1.5200 could be seen after consolidation. Key resistance is at 1.5062, above this level will confirm the resumption of long term uptrend from 1.3748 (June 16 low).

GBPUSD Analysis.
After breaking above 1.6741 (Sept 11 high) resistance, GBPUSD pulled back from 1.6841, suggesting that a short term cycle top is being formed on 4-hour chart. Minor consolidation would more likely be seen in a couple of days and another fall to 1.6500-1.6550 area is expected. Resistance level is at 1.6841, above this level will signal further rally towards 1.7042 (Aug 5 high).

USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD dropped sharply to as low as 1.0479 level. Deeper decline is still possible later today and next target would be at 1.4000 zone. Key resistance is now located at 1.0606, as long as this level holds, downtrend will continue, however a break above this level will indicate that a short term cycle bottom has been formed, then another rise towards 1.1000 could be seen to follow.

USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY is testing 89.44 support, a break below this level will signal another fall towards 88.83 support. Resistance is now at 90.26, only rise above this level could take price back to range trading between 89.44 and 91.26.

USDCHF Analysis.
Being contained by 1.0032 support, USDCHF formed a narrow trading range above 1.0050. Minor consolidation of downtrend from 1.0338 would more likely be seen in a couple of days and rebound towards the upper border of falling price channel on 4-hour chart is expected. Key support is now at 1.0032, a breakdown below this level will confirm that the downtrend from 1.1021 (June 24 high) has resumed, then deeper decline could be seen to 0.9900 zone.

AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD is testing previous high resistance at 0.9326. Minor consolidation would more likely be seen before breaking above this level, and pullback to 0.9200-0.9250 is expected. However, a break above 0.9326 will confirm that the longer term uptrend from 0.7703 (July 13 low) has resumed, then another rise towards 0.9500 could be seen.

Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 10/11/2009

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:04:15 +0100

Daily Forex Reports | Written by forexpros.com | Tuesday, 10 November 2009 12:16 GMT

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 10, 2009

Traders await the release of the Bank of England's (BOE) Quarterly Inflation Report tomorrow (NOV 10th).

The report sets out a detailed economic analysis and inflation projection on which the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee bases its interest rate decisions. The Monetary Policy Committee is also expected to present an assessment of the prospects for UK inflation over the next two years.

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Euro Dollar - Rising Trendline

The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterday's report 1.4942 and reached the first target suggest for his break 1.5014 with good accuracy (yesterday's high was 1.5018). Yesterday's target will be today's resistance, and if broken we expect this rise to go on, reaching new highs that we have not seen this year, first of which is 1.5082, then 1.5144. The most important support for the next few hours will be the rising trendline from November 3rd bottoms, which is at 1.4925 currently. In case it is broken, the Euro will face a correction on the short-term horizon that will target Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term at 1.4821, at least, and could reach 61.8% at 1.4746. In this case, the latter will be the most important support for the short-term because staying above means this drop is only a correction, while breaking it means it is more than a correction.

Support:
• 1.4925: The bottom of the rising channel from Nov 3rd lows.
• 1.4821: Fibonacci 38.2% for the last rising move.
• 1.4746: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last rising move.

Resistance:
• 1.5014: previous resistance from 2008.
• 1.5082: previous resistan4ce from 2008.
• 1.5144: previous support from 2008.

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USD/JPY - Falling Trendline

As we said yesterday, the two-time stop at the descending trendline on Friday, and at Fibonacci 50% resistance at the beginning of the week, the borders of the downtrend is getting clearer and clearer. The falling trendline is now at short-term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance is at 90.37, meeting them in the same area is the moving average SMA100, making this area the most important for the short-term. Staying below it means that bears are in control. More confidence for the downtrend will be gained once we break 89.79, the support provided by the rising trendline from this weeks low. Such a break will target 89.40 then the important bottom 88.82. If a surprise happens, and we break 90.37, we will target 90.90 first, then 91.30.

Support:
• 89.79: the rising trendline from this weeks low.
• 89.40: previous support.
• 88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.

Resistance:
• 90.37: a resistance area that includes Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, a falling trendline, and the moving average SMA100.
• 90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
• 91.30: Nov 4th high.

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Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther Marji

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Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

USD/JPY 90.16 - 10 November 2009

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:01:14 +0100

Daily Forex Reports | Written by iFOREX.bg | Tuesday, 10 November 2009 11:57 GMT

USD/JPY Open 89.95 High 90.23 Low 89.68 Close 89.96
On Monday Dollar/Yen was trading quietly after the sharp fall on Friday. On the 1 hour chart the important key support 89.55 was broken downward at the beginning of last week, indicating strong bears with perspective targets towards 88.60. However, the CCI indicator is in the oversold zone and upwards on a 3 hour chart, so be careful for potential upward pressure towards the 91.30 resistance level. Break above that zone may seriously shake the bearish outlook and lead to stronger increasing pressure with potential test of 93.10.
Technical resistance levels: 90.25 91.30 93.10
Technical support levels: 89.70 88.60 87.95

Trading range: 90.30 - 89.65
Trend: Downward
Sell at 90.16 SL 90.46 TP 89.76

Already made +23 pips profit on USD/JPY today from the following signal:
5:36 GMT+1 Sell USD/JPY at 89.91 SL 90.17 TP 89.41 exited at 5:44 GMT.
Total today +95, yesterday +181, as shown in details here.

Disclaimer: Please note that our technical analysis is not daily/evening forecast, neither a trading signal. Therefore the expectations shown here may differ from our forecasts and signals, to give readers different point of view.

Written by iFOREX.bg

GBP/USD 1.6667 - 10 November 2009

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:59:49 +0100

Daily Forex Reports | Written by iFOREX.bg | Tuesday, 10 November 2009 09:05 GMT

GBP/USD Open 1.6775 High 1.6843 Low 1.6475 Close 1.6757
On Monday Pound/Dollar also climbed from 1.6617 to the 1.6843 top, closing the day at 1.6757. Today, however, the Cable deeply corrected, swallowing all yesterday's rise. If Sterling can manage to recover and cross convincingly yesterday's top and first resistance 1.6843, upward scenario will be confirmed and rising may continue with next objectives towards 1.6965. Immediate support is today's bottom at 1.6600. Break bellow it should confirm battle taking over by the bears and possible stronger downward momentum with serious threat to the bullish outlook. The CCI indicator had crossed down the 100 line on the 1 hour chart, suggesting bearish perspectives.
Technical resistance levels: 1.6845 1.6965 1.7100
Technical support levels: 1.6600 1.6470 1.6335

Trading range: 1.6680 - 1.6605
Trend: Downward
Sell at 1.6667 SL 1.6697 TP 1.6617

Already made +25 pips profit on GBP/USD today from the following signal:
5:36 GMT+1 Sell GBP/USD at 1.6633 SL 1.6659 TP 1.6573 exited at 5:37 GMT
Today so far +95, yesterday +181, as shown in details here.

Disclaimer: Please note that our technical analysis is not daily/evening forecast, neither a trading signal. Therefore the expectations shown here may differ from our forecasts and signals, to give readers different point of view.

Written by iFOREX.bg

Daily Forex Analysis by Finexo.com 10/11/2009

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:57:43 +0100

Daily Forex Reports | Written by Finexo.com | Tuesday, 10 November 2009 08:23 GMT

USD

The G20 met on Monday and pledged to keep emergency stimulus spending in place until a global recovery is assured. This moved investors out of the US Dollar and into the higher yielding currencies as well as the stalwart Euro and British Pound. The declaration by the G20 members was interpreted as an affirmation that interest rates will remain low for some time, a situation that leaves an abundance of cheap money to buy stocks, commodities and other currencies.

At 11:00PM GMT, the US Dollar was trading down 1% to the Euro to 1.4992, down 1.75% to the Canadian Dollar to 1.0565, down .85% to the British Pound to 1.6751, down 1.2% to the Australian Dollar to .9297, down 2.24% to the New Zealand Dollar to .742 and down .89% against the Swiss Franc to 1.008. The Dollar did rise .18% versus the Japanese Yen to 90.01.

Overall, the Dollar has fallen to its lowest level in 15 months against a basket of currencies, on its way to its largest single day drop in half a year. The ICE futures Dollar index was trading last at 75.145, down 1.05% on the day.

Chart: EURGBP

EURGBP trying to make a new foray to the downside today, but will likely need a good look at Wednesday's Quarterly Inflation Report before any decisive move can be made. NOte the approaching 200-day moving average to the downside.

Written by Finexo.com

Daily Forex Analysis – November 10, 2009

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:52:29 +0100

EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD’s uptrend from 1.4626 extended to as high as 1.5020. Further rise to test 1.5062 is possible later today. Support is now located at the rising trend line from 1.4626 to 1.4811, as long as the trend line support holds, we’d expect uptrend to continue, however below the trend line support will suggest a minor consolidation is under ways, then pullback to 1.4920-1.4950 is expected to follow.

GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD broke above 1.6741 (Sept 11 high) critical resistance, suggesting that the longer term downtrend from 1.7042 (Aug 5 high) has completed at 1.5708 level already. Further rise is now in favor and next target is to test 1.7042 previous high resistance. Support level is now at 1.6700 followed by 1.6610, as long as these levels hold, uptrend from 1.6262 will continue.

USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD dropped below 1.0594 support and the fall from 1.0852 extended further to as low as 1.0542 level. Deeper decline to 1.0450-1.0500 area to reach next short term cycle bottom on 4-hour chart is still possible in a couple of days. However, the fall from 1.0852 is more likely correction of uptrend from 1.0206, another rise towards 1.1000 is still possible.

USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY stays in a trading range between 89.44 and 91.26. Moving sideways in the range is possible later today. Below 89.44 could signal deeper decline towards 88.83 support. On the up side, key resistance is located at 91.26, above this level will suggest that the uptrend from 88.01 has resumed, then another rise towards 94.00 is expected to follow.

USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF is testing 1.0032 previous low support, break below this level will indicate that the downtrend from 1.1021 (June 24 high) has resumed, then deeper decline could be seen to 0.9900 area. Near term resistance is at falling trend line from 1.0338 to 1.0201, as long as the trend line resistance holds, we’d expect downtrend from 1.0338 to continue.

AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD has reached the previous high resistance at 0.9326, consolidation would more likely be seen before breaking above this level and pullback to 0.9200 is possible. However, a break above 0.9326 will confirm that the longer term uptrend from 0.7703 (July 13 low) has resumed, then another rise towards 0.9500 could be seen.

Euro Poised to Test Yearly High, British Pound Breaks Out of Range to Hit 3-Month High

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 12:55:26 +0100

Written By : DailyFx.com

The euro surged higher on Monday and crossed above the 20-Day SMA (1.4880) to reach a high of 1.5012, and the single-currency looks poised to test the yearly high at 1.5064 as investors raise their appetite for risk.

Talking Points
•    Japanese Yen: USD/JPY Remains Weighed, Holds Below 90.00
•    Pound: Breaks Range to Hit 3-Month High
•    Euro: German Trade Surplus Widens, Industrial Outputs Jump
•    US Dollar: IMF Sees Further Weakness, Carry-Interest to Rise

Euro Poised to Test Yearly High, British Pound Breaks Out of Range to Hit 3-Month High

The euro surged higher on Monday and crossed above the 20-Day SMA (1.4880) to reach a high of 1.5012, and the single-currency looks poised to test the yearly high at 1.5064 as investors raise their appetite for risk. At the same time, investor confidence in Europe increased for the fourth consecutive month in November, with the Sentix index rising to -7.0 from -12.6 in the previous month, while the gauge for future expectations jumped to 12.0 from 5.8 in October to mark the highest reading since June 2007.

Moreover, the trade surplus for Germany widened to 10.6B in September from 8.1B amid expectations for a rise to 11.3B as imports surged 5.8% from the previous month, while exports advanced 3.8% after falling 2.8% in August, and the marked appreciation in the exchange rate may weigh on economic activity going forward as global trade conditions remain weak. Furthermore, industrial outputs in Europe’s largest economy increased 2.7% during the same period to top forecasts for a 1.0% rise, while the annualized rate slipped 12.9% from the previous year after tumbling 16.5% in the previous month, and businesses may continue to ramp up their rate of production over the coming months as policy makers anticipate the euro-region to return to growth going into the following year. Meanwhile, European Central Bank board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi held a cautious outlook for global growth as he expects unemployment in the U.S. and Europe to increase throughout the first-half of 2010, and argued policy makers should continue to support economic activity going forward in order to encourage a sustainable recovery.

The British pound strengthened against the greenback for the fifth day and broke out of the October range to reach a three-month high of 1.6844, and the currency may continue to retrace the sell-off from August as market sentiment improves. As a result, we may see the GBP/USD attempt to test the yearly high at 1.7045 over the week as the economic docket is anticipated to reinforce an improved outlook for the U.K. however, as the relative strength index approaches overbought territory, we may see the currency pair hold a broad range throughout the month as investors weigh the outlook for future policy.

The greenback weakened across the board, with the dollar index slipping to 74.99 during the overnight session to mark the lowest level since October 21st, and the reserve-currency may face increased selling pressures going into the North American trade as equity futures foreshadow a higher open for the U.S. market. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund said the dollar remains “on the strong side” and expects the trade-currency to depreciate further over the coming months as it remain the most popular funding-currency, next to the Japanese yen, and the group projects the exchange rate to weaken further over the coming months as the Federal Reserve pledges to maintain borrowing costs at the record-low for “an extended period” of time.